Forecasts and Predictions (2024)

Forecast guidance refers to computer-generated output that utilizes environmental forcing equations and observations to assist in the preparation of a forecast. Numerical weather and oceanographic forecast models produce forecast guidance for various oceanographic and atmospheric conditions at both the global and regional scales.

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) develops and maintains several weather, ocean, and climate numerical guidance systems. A full list of the operational models run by NCEP can be found on their Numerical Forecast/Analysis Systems webpage. Descriptions of and links to the forecast modeling systems that are useful for navigation can be found below.

Animated precipitation map produced from a run of the Global Forecast System (GFS).

Global Forecast Modeling Systems

GFSwave

The model runs as a coupled component to the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The NWS/NCEP operational global wave model (WAVEWATCH III) produces forecast guidance for wave height, direction, and period, as well as wind speed and direction, throughout the world’s oceans was replaced by this model. Users can choose between local, regional, and full-basin forecast zones to view the forecast guidance for several wave and wind conditions (e.g., significant wave height; primary swell wave height; peak wave period). The model is run four times each day, and each run produces hourly forecasts out to 120 hours and 3-hour forecasts out to 180 hours.

Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (GRTOFS)

The National Weather Service (NWS) Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (GRTOFS) provides forecast guidance for water levels, water temperature, salinity, and currents out to 144 hours (6 days) for most of the world’s oceans. The "Nowcast/Forecast Viewer" allows users to visualize the forecast guidance of each condition, and the model data can be downloaded as individual NetCDF files, OpenDAP urls, and regional GRIB2 files. The model has one forecast cycle per day at 0000 UTC, which uses 3-hourly meteorological forecast guidance from the NWS/NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS); each forecast cycle is preceded with a 48-hr long nowcast/data assimilation cycle. The system uses the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM), an eddy resolving, hybrid coordinate numerical ocean prediction model; it has a horizontal resolution of 1/12 degree and 32 hybrid vertical layers.

NOAA (NOS) Global Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (Global ESTOFS)

NOAA’s Global Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (Global ESTOFS) provides users with nowcasts (analyses of near present conditions) and forecast guidance of water level conditions for the entire globe. Global ESTOFS serves the marine navigation, weather forecasting, and disaster mitigation user communities. The modeling system is run four times per day, and water level forecast guidance is provided out to 180 hours (nowcast for previous 6 hours followed by 7.5 day forecast). Forecast output includes water levels caused by the combined effects of storm surge and tides, by astronomical tides alone, and by sub-tidal water levels (isolated storm surge). The hydrodynamic model employed by Global ESTOFS is the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) finite element model. Global ESTOFS has a coastal horizontal resolution of at least 1.5 km and up to 80 m globally. Global ESTOFS is a collaborative effort led by the NOAA/National Ocean Service (NOS)/Office of Coast Survey along with the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS)/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations (NCO), the University of Notre Dame, Argonne National Laboratory, the University of North Carolina, and The Water Institute of the Gulf.

Coastal Forecast Modeling Systems

NOAA (NOS) Operational Oceanographic Forecast Modeling Systems (OFS)

NOAA provides forecast guidance for water levels, water temperature, salinity, and currents to help mariners safely navigate their local waters. The guidance is generated by a national network of numerical oceanographic forecast modeling systems for the next 48 or 120 hours depending on the water body. These forecast modeling systems are usually run four times per day (e.g. 0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC). The systems are implemented in critical ports, harbors, estuaries, Great Lakes and coastal waters of the United States, and form a national backbone of real-time data, tidal predictions, data management and operational modeling.

Depiction of surface currents for part of the New York/New Jersey Harbor, based on the OFS available there (NYOFS).

Nearshore Wave Prediction System

The Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) provides on-demand, high-resolution nearshore wave model guidance to U.S. coastal WFOs, triggered in real time by forecast wind grids prepared and submitted by the individual offices. Through an interactive map, users can find forecasts for significant wave height, peak period, wave direction, and wind speed out to 6 days for several stations along the U.S. coastline.

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) is a new and essential component of the NWS’s Climate, Water, and Weather Services. AHPS is a web-based suite of accurate and information-rich forecast products. They display the magnitude and uncertainty of occurrence for floods or droughts, from hours to days and months, in advance. Although AHPS focuses mainly on forecasts of water levels along rivers, it does provide time series plots of observed and predicted water levels at many coastal locations.

Forecasts and Predictions (2024)

FAQs

Forecasts and Predictions? ›

Prediction is concerned with future certainty; forecasting looks at how hidden currents in the present signal possible changes in direction for companies, societies, or the world at large. Thus, the primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities, not a limited set of illusory certainties.

What is the difference between a forecast and a prediction? ›

Prediction involves making an educated guess or projection about a specific outcome without relying on historical data or statistical methods. Forecasting typically focuses on predicting outcomes over a longer time frame, often involving trends and patterns that occur over months, years, or even decades.

What is an example of forecasting and prediction? ›

For example, predictive forecasting can help predict the company's revenue for the coming year based on the forecasted development of specific variables such as search queries, competitor prices and extraordinary events.

Is forecast a synonym for prediction? ›

Some common synonyms of predict are forecast, foretell, prognosticate, and prophesy. While all these words mean "to tell beforehand," predict commonly implies inference from facts or accepted laws of nature.

What is the difference between predictions and projections? ›

It has a similar meaning to “prediction,” something that might happen in the future. But “projections” can change depending on the situation or conditions. “Projections” are created based on numbers and facts. But if that information changes, it is understood that the projection changes too.

Is forecast the opposite of predict? ›

Some common synonyms of forecast are foretell, predict, prognosticate, and prophesy. While all these words mean "to tell beforehand," forecast adds the implication of anticipating eventualities and differs from predict in being usually concerned with probabilities rather than certainties.

What are the three types of forecasting? ›

Key PointsIn planning for the future of their operations, businesses rely on three types of forecasting. These include economic, technological, and demand forecasting.

What is a good example of prediction? ›

Predictions are often written in the form of “if, and, then” statements, as in, “if my hypothesis is true, and I were to do this test, then this is what I will observe.” Following our sparrow example, you could predict that, “If sparrows use grass because it is more abundant, and I compare areas that have more twigs ...

What is a short example of prediction? ›

She claims that she can predict future events. It's hard to predict how the election will turn out. Many people predicted that the store would fail, but it has done very well. Sales are predicted to be the same as last year.

What is forecasting in simple words? ›

What is Forecasting? Forecasting refers to the practice of predicting what will happen in the future by taking into consideration events in the past and present. Basically, it is a decision-making tool that helps businesses cope with the impact of the future's uncertainty by examining historical data and trends.

What are 3 synonyms for predict? ›

predicts
  • anticipate.
  • call.
  • conclude.
  • envision.
  • forecast.
  • foresee.
  • think.

What is prediction? ›

A prediction is what someone thinks will happen. A prediction is a forecast, but not only about the weather. Pre means “before” and diction has to do with talking. So a prediction is a statement about the future. It's a guess, sometimes based on facts or evidence, but not always.

What do you call a person who predicts the future? ›

Definitions of soothsayer. noun. someone who makes predictions of the future (usually on the basis of special knowledge) synonyms: forecaster, predictor, prognosticator.

What are some applications of forecasting and prediction? ›

It has tons of practical applications including: weather forecasting, climate forecasting, economic forecasting, healthcare forecasting engineering forecasting, finance forecasting, retail forecasting, business forecasting, environmental studies forecasting, social studies forecasting, and more.

What is the difference between an estimate and a forecast? ›

Forecast : To predict a future event or trend. Estimate : To roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. Projection : To estimate or forecast of a future situation or trend based on a study of present ones.

Is forecast and projection the same thing? ›

Projections outline financial outcomes based on what might possibly happen (in theory), whereas forecasts describe financial outcomes based on what you expect actually will happen, given current conditions, plans, and intentions.

What is the difference between a forecast and a prediction quizlet? ›

Forecast is scientific and free from intuition and personal bias, whereas prediction is subjective and fatalistic in nature. prediction is judgmental and takes into account changes taking place in the future.

What is the difference between predictive analysis and forecasting? ›

How Exactly Do They Differ? It's all about science and math versus how people think. With predictive forecasting, you are looking at what the actual item has done in past years. With predictive analytics, you're going after trends in what people do.

What is the difference between predicted value and forecasted value? ›

There is only one difference between these two in time series. Forecasting pertains to out of sample observations, whereas prediction pertains to in sample observations. Predicted values (and by that I mean OLS predicted values) are calculated for observations in the sample used to estimate the regression.

What is the difference between prediction and forecasting in geography? ›

Prediction is knowing when and where a natural hazard will strike on a spatial and temporal scale that can be acted on meaningfully. Forecasting is less precise and provides % chances of hazards occurring in a particular place.

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